Light at the end of the tunnel

April 16, 2010 — A.J. Kelly

The Orioles are not hitting the ball well.  They’re seeing too few pitches, not walking enough, and not hitting enough line drives.  That is fine.  Things will turn around.  The league average line drive rate is ~19% (which doesn’t fluctuate much from player to player).  Every line drive is worth approximately 1.3 runs per out.  The Orioles as a team only have a ~15.5% line drive rate.  That is unsustainable; they will regress to the norm.  Likewise, their pitches per plate appearance will average out.  The runs will come.  They’ll score 5 – 6 runs per game and we will start winning.  Our bullpen will likewise begin to perform.  Just have a little faith and a little patience.

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Orioles at Oakland 4/15/2010

April 15, 2010 — A.J. Kelly

The Orioles look to get their second win in the season while visiting Oakland.  It’s still early, but it’s hard to be optimistic about the O’s with how they’re playing.  ESPN’s Accuscore gives Oakland a 55% chance of beating the birds.  The Orioles have Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez on the DL and Garret Atkins is day to day.  Hopefully playing one guy short won’t hurt our chances.  The A’s have Michael Wuertz, Joey Devine, and Coco Crisp on their DL, with Mark Ellis day to day.

Lineups

Orioles – Team wOBA .306
Felix Pie LF – .471 AVG/.500 OBP/.765 SLG/.540 wOBA
Adam Jones CF – .211/.250/.368/.257
Nick Markakis RF – .207/.410/.345/.347
Miguel Tejada 3B – .229/.308/.457/.335
Matt Wieters C – .335/.424/.448/.381
Luke Scott DH – .240/.345/.420/.373
Ty Wigginton 2B – .333/.333/.667/.422
Garrett Atkins 1B – .219/.242/.313/.244
Cesar Izturis SS – .217/.280/.217/.226

David Hernandez RHP – 3.87 FIP, 7.50 K/9, 6.00 BB/9

Athletics – Team wOBA .308
Rajai Davis CF – .227/.261/.318/.284
Daric Barton 1B – .333/.500/.400/.404
Ryan Sweeney RF – .297/.341/.378/.306
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B – .256/.333/.385/.311
Kurt Suzuki C – .200/.282/.343/.281
Eric Chavez DH – .200/.231/.280/.227
Adam Rosales 2B – .364/.462/.636/.471
Travis Buck LF – .174/.269/.261/.248
Cliff Pennington SS – .226/.351/.484/.371

Ben Sheets RHP – 5.41 FIP, 3.27 K/9, 5.73 BB/9

My Take

I think this will be a close game.  Both offenses have been anemic this year, which might prove helpful for the O’s.  If the other team can’t score on our relievers we might be able to pull this one out.  A year removed from the game, let’s hope Sheets doesn’t remember how to pitch.

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